In this article Bill Gates says the Bubble is Back.
Um. Heck, Bill, you late in catching up on your feeds?
“Asked to name the next YouTube , the free video exchange Web site that is being acquired by Google for US$1.65 billion, Gates said that he was cautious.”
Of course he was. He hasn’t a clue. Microsoft and Bill don’t have any sort of special scrying glass to divine the future of the internet. They just build mediocre products and use their massive cash reserves to kill competitors. This much has been proven.
Sad thing is that the answer is obvious. The next YouTube is the current Youtube. Now, pick a different market and identify the major players. Some of the emerging markets (like BaseCamp) are just not mainstream yet. Post-chasm people are still finding out about Myspace and Bebo so it’ll be a while before it’s ubquitous. This weekend, a friend of mine got her family onto Skype, including some friends in New Zealand. That sort of stuff is paradigm shifting (though I’ve ben harping on about it for months and months and really prefer non-proprietary protocols).
Asking Bill Gates about the future is sort of an oxymoron. I can’t think of a single market where they (Microsoft) were the pioneer.