The State of Funding in 2009 in Northern Ireland

2009 saw us deep in the grips of a recession with doom and gloom at every corner but 2009 also represented one of the most ‘entrepreneurial’ years since 2000. Northern Ireland is not Silicon Valley. We don’t have the climate, we don’t have the architecture and we don’t have the big names. The average Venture … Continue reading “The State of Funding in 2009 in Northern Ireland”

2009 saw us deep in the grips of a recession with doom and gloom at every corner but 2009 also represented one of the most ‘entrepreneurial’ years since 2000.

Northern Ireland is not Silicon Valley. We don’t have the climate, we don’t have the architecture and we don’t have the big names. The average Venture Capitalist in Silicon Valley can probably fill his term sheet 5 times over by just selecting startups within a 20 mile radius of his office.

So, where could we get investment in 2009?

The most obvious place that people first turn to is InvestNI. They’re the Regional Development Agency for Northern Ireland and they advertise heavily, encouraging people to ‘Go For It” and start their own business. InvestNI offers several programmes which may be of interest:

  • GAP – the Growth Accelerator Programme provides relief on vouched and approved expenditure providing up to 50% of your investment back. If your expenditure is likely to be less than £5000, then you’re going to spend a relatively large amount of time filling in forms and vouching for a maximum of £2500 (because InvestNI will attempt to argue down from the peak of 50% return). If you’re spending £20000, then it makes a lot more sense. It’s a simple, accessible programme with a very boring form.
  • Grant for R&D – a little more limited though the amounts can be potentially higher. I’ve not seen much evidence that this is really that accessible but I’m sure that’s just due to my exposure than any difficulty. The problem I foresee for companies I work with is that defining software development as ‘R&D’ is hard.
  • Trade and Export – this process is very accessible and is a short form as well. It enables a small group of companies to attend trade shows and conferences around the world and gives them around 50% of the money back once they return. Usually there’s also some facilitation when you get out there from the InvestNI teams. InvestNI should do more of this – these guys are great.
  • Other programmes? I hear that there’s a heap of programmes like SFA? Management Assistance? but I have so far failed to find someone who can really tell me more about it!

InvestNI also has the NISPO fund which is managed by e-Synergy. This support includes a £5 million venture capital fund, the Invest Growth Fund, which focuses on seed and early stage businesses with high growth potential and a £3 million proof of concept fund, the Invest Growth Proof of Concept Fund, which is funded by Invest NI to provide funding to very early, non-university projects. All of this money is either match funded or vouched so, like with all public funding, to achieve this you’ll need some sort of other private money behind you. The fund opened in July 2009 and has invested in two local companies: Sonic Academy and Anaeko.

Continuing with the public sector funding, there’s a potential for also getting funding from NIScreen or the Arts Council.

NIScreen has a Digital Media Fund for content (not the enabling technology) and media projects funded must have 60% moving image. This fund is currently closed (and has been closed since around September 2009). It’s pretty accessible for companies making digital films or games though NIScreen admits that they’re only really getting started in the Digital Content sector.

The Arts Council will have spent the £5 million Creative Industries Innovation Fund by March 2010 and the last trenche (from Sept/Oct) is likely to have been the last of the money. This was a seed fund specifically to embrace innovation and the arts including software, games, film, television. There was a lot of money from this fund spent on ‘startup costs’ which I think is a poor use when they could be much more specific. The funds available were between £10000 and £50000 and were certainly earmarked (on paper) for innovation. The Arts Council has a raft of other support for arts-related projects so there’s bound to be some opportunity there for some.

There’s a funding-like service offered by InvestNI called “Innovation Vouchers” which buys you £4000 worth of University research time. This has been misused in the past to get normal development done and realistically £4000 is not going to buy you very much but it’s an option for people who have ideas and who cannot build it themselves.

I’m not aware of other public sector funding which would be applicable to the Digital Content and Software Sector.

There are private sources of funding as well. The first is the three Fs. Friends, Family and Fools. Anyone you can hoodwink into giving you startup money because they trust you is likely going to be a better bet than anything. As you can match private money with public in the schemes above, it helps your buck go that little bit further. But you’re talking about friends and family. I would hope that people put more care into this than anything.

Getting a loan from the bank to finance your business is also possible in theory though I don’t have much experience of getting this. Actually – I do – but the experience was so painful that I cannot recommend it. I ended up paying exorbitant amounts of interest on a £15000 loan which very nearly put us out of business. If I could encourage you of one thing – it’s not to go to the banks. If a bank manager wants to talk to someone or offer up some time to talk to a group of entrepreneurs, then I’m very willing to hear them. As long as they’re not from the First Trust Bank in Lisburn.

Angel Investment is another option. Angels are private individuals who have personal wealth which they can invest in other businesses with the intention of increasing their investment or getting a chunk of money back when the business is sold. As a rule they’re not doing it for anything other than the money (though several have said to me they’re doing it because it stops them rotting their liver at the 19th Hole). According to Venturehacks, an Angel is someone who has capital, has good judgement and who also has ‘proprietary deal flow’; they’ve got something other than money behind them. They can provide something than no-one else can or they have an exclusivity to their investments which helps them maintain their name.
Halo NI, the only Angel Network I’m aware of in Belfast. I know they have facilitated investments over the last year

And finally, we have Venture Capital. I’ve not seen any of this in action but I know it exists with apparently some £20 million in play in Northern Ireland (a very small amount compared to other regions) and apparently most of it is already invested. I’d welcome comment about the NI Venture Capital Markets.

There are other options out there and I’m working with some organisations out there to see if we can improve the situation for local entrepreneurs and company founders in accessing private finance for their startups. I’d welcome your input.

Make no little plans. Think Big.

“Make no little plans. They have no magic to stir men’s blood and probably themselves will not be realized. Make big plans; aim high in hope and work, remembering that a noble, logical diagram once recorded will never die, but long after we are gone will be a living thing, asserting itself with ever-growing insistency. … Continue reading “Make no little plans. Think Big.”

“Make no little plans. They have no magic to stir men’s blood and probably themselves will not be realized. Make big plans; aim high in hope and work, remembering that a noble, logical diagram once recorded will never die, but long after we are gone will be a living thing, asserting itself with ever-growing insistency. Remember that our sons and grandsons are going to do things that would stagger us. Let your watchword be order and your beacon beauty. Think big.”
DANIEL BURNHAM, CHICAGO ARCHITECT. (1864-1912)

[I got this from Gruber’s detailed treatment of the Tablet]

e-Synergy Committees and Panels openings

e-Synergy runs “NISPO” The Northern Ireland Spin Out Initiatives support start up businesses in Northern Ireland. A venture capital fund, the Invest Growth Fund (IGF) focuses on seed and early stage businesses with high growth potential and the Invest Growth Proof of Concept Fund (IGPoC) provides funding to very early, non-university projects. e-Synergy are seeking … Continue reading “e-Synergy Committees and Panels openings”

e-Synergy runs “NISPO”

The Northern Ireland Spin Out Initiatives support start up businesses in Northern Ireland. A venture capital fund, the Invest Growth Fund (IGF) focuses on seed and early stage businesses with high growth potential and the Invest Growth Proof of Concept Fund (IGPoC) provides funding to very early, non-university projects.

e-Synergy are seeking applications for their Committee and Panel for both the Invest Growth Fund and the Proof of Concept Fund. They’re looking for entrepreneurial individuals with impressive track records of success and sound judgement. Neither position is salaried.

assessmentpanelmembers

Download As A PDF (152K)

For my part, I’ve asked for the forms but I’d be interested in being on the Assessment Panel for the Proof of Concept fund. It’s core to my desires of helping to generate a dynamic knowledge-based digital economy in Northern Ireland – a desire which is both separate but complementary to my day job as Facilitator for the Digital Circle.

Ten Apps I Want…

Ten Apps that I’d like to see on the iPhone. I’m also suggesting names for these. To be honest, I’d like to pull together a team to build them but that seems to be a lot more difficult than I’d hoped. If anyone wants to call me and work with me to pull together funding, … Continue reading “Ten Apps I Want…”

Ten Apps that I’d like to see on the iPhone. I’m also suggesting names for these. To be honest, I’d like to pull together a team to build them but that seems to be a lot more difficult than I’d hoped. If anyone wants to call me and work with me to pull together funding, then you know where to get me.

  1. MeetFreak/TrendSeek
    Helps people find each other by abusing Twitter trends and trying to suck Location Data in there. This is a lot easier now that Twitter is supporting GeoTags. So, let us see a map of trends? People are talking about #RED, where are they talking about it? Let us see every tweet with the Trend on a map that we can see. Then you’re more likely to be able to congregate with people
  2. Multitool
    Uses the five tabs along the bottom to give you a view of
    1) IMAP account
    2) Web Browser
    3) Twitter
    4) Mapper
    5) Converter/Calculator
    Redirects all http:// and mailto: seen inside the app, to the app and not outside so doesn’t launch Safari or Mail. A lot of this is kinda redundant when we have decent clients for much of this inside Safari. But some offline caching is a big deal for those of us who tend not to be inside the city centres where you can get decent 3G.
  3. Screen shot 2009-12-01 at 11.32.12

  4. Verifriend, Reputato
    This is an online reputation profiler. Yes, it’s going to be a popularity contest but essentially it all depends on trust. Adding your rating to someone is not something to be done lightly. In some ways it needs to be a trust engine – and it can be as simple as giving a trust rating to a new friend based on the trust ratings that others have provided. There needs to be some sort of anonymity (maybe like the reviews process on iTunes you only get a rating when a certain number of reviews have been processed) but unlike FaceBook it should provide that extra level of security.
  5. Screen shot 2009-12-01 at 11.30.26

  6. Director
    Allows me to text directions to someone who asks me on the street. In plain text. Or Bluetooth them. Or even just email them. Or something. Or magic them straight into their brain. Any of these things would be fine. Just so I don’t have to try to explain the directions to someone.
  7. REDACTED
    This one was so good, someone asked me to take it down. 🙂 Suffice to say it was AR related.
  8. Tweet16
    Twitter lists are all very well but they don’t solve th problem I have. I follow about 1000 people but there’s probably less than 150 or so (that magic Dunbar number) whom I regularly interact with. There’s probably only 10% of those whom I really want to pay attention to. I’d like a Twitter client that shows me my timeline, my mentions, my DMs and finally, my Tweet16 – 16 people from whom I see all of their public messages rather than not seeing the ones who are at people I don’t follow.
  9. Plannity
    So, I fill in all of this information into my calendar and that includes times and dates and, most crucially, locations of my meetings. Why hasn’t there been a social app that runs via Exchange/Outlook, on iPhone, iCal and other formats which takes this location information, munges it up with my social network and allows me to see when I can grab lunch with friends or when I’m in the same town as someone I like. I think that Tripit is meant to do this and today I read about Plancast which promises to do something about this. But this is a hot topic, guys. Location is the big thing for 2009/2010.
  10. Echelon (or TwitterBug)
    I mentioned this a week ago – a cool idea for Twitter and other social networks which again uses location. So – get this – all of your messages are geotagged, or if not now, a lot of them will be. So, Echelon ‘listens’ in for anything said in an area rather than things said about trends or by your friends. The default set is seeing tweets which are in your immediate area – the killer part though is being able to drop a ‘bug’ (for bug, read ‘pin’) on a map and be able to sample the Tweets going through that area and the surrounding radius. So, in effect, you’ve dropped a Twitter Bug somewhere and you’re able to listen in. The Freemium version could monitor one location, the PayFor version could monitor several. ( ECHELON is a name used in global media and in popular culture to describe a signals intelligence (SIGINT) collection and analysis network operated on behalf of the five signatory states to the UK-USA Security Agreement (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States)
  11. photo

  12. The Official CIA Manual of Trickery and Deception
    Perfect for the Sandbagger or Spook among us, this is a recently published book derived from an official manual. As most of them are small pictorial sessions, they’re ripe for viewing on the iPhone, turning the iPhone into the ultimate tradecraft manual. You can see clips from the book on Gizmodo. So scan it, make it searchable so you can quickly flick through and find the perfect tradecraft for the perfect moment.
  13. Pollenator
    For public debates, a simple push notification which opens the app and gives you a simple couple of choices accompanied with text, audio or video. Push one, it’s recorded (with time, place, ID, IMEI and whatever other data you have collected and after a certain amount of time, the poll times out. Poll answers should be “Yes”, “No” or “Whatever”. If you choose to ignore or “Whatever” it, then you’re counted as an abstention. I’d love to see this app running and see visualisations of what it could bring in terms of demographics, location and other meta data. I sat with Stuart and Phil (and with PJ on the end of a Skype call) one evening and we mocked up some stuff for this based on Stuarts idea of “Pirates versus Ninjas”. But the actual implementation could have led to entirely other applications.
  14. Polls widget from Google Wave
    Polls widget from Google Wave

I’d love to see all of these on my iPhone. Id love to talk more about these apps to people who are interested. I’d love even more to be involved in the group/company/whatever that was going to make some of these.

Please comment if they inspired you or if you’re working on something similar.

The Last Mile

Last week there was a public debate on “Monetising Kelvin” held out at the Northern Ireland Science Park. The event was sponsored by MATRIX and Hibernia Atlantic. Project Kelvin is a joint €30 million initiative between DETI and DCENR and is partly funded through the EC INTERREG IVA programme. The new cable will link Armagh, … Continue reading “The Last Mile”

Last week there was a public debate on “Monetising Kelvin” held out at the Northern Ireland Science Park. The event was sponsored by MATRIX and Hibernia Atlantic.

Project Kelvin is a joint €30 million initiative between DETI and DCENR and is partly funded through the EC INTERREG IVA programme. The new cable will link Armagh, Ballymena, Belfast, Coleraine, Londonderry, Omagh, Portadown and Strabane to Europe and North America. In addition, the cable will also provide links to Letterkenny, Castleblayney, Dundalk, Drogheda and Monaghan. This build marks another key milestone in Hibernia Atlantic’s history, as the communications company is the first to deploy a cable from North America to this region. This build is also notable for Northern Ireland and global companies alike, as it offers a new wealth of capacity and the ability to directly and securely connect to Canada, US, UK and mainland Europe.

This proposal adds high speed connectivity to the existing Northern Ireland Saturn Ring (NISR):
Bytel-Ireland-A4_24_08_2007

Locations on the Saturn Ring are already possessing high speed connections but if you’re not in a building sitting on a Point of Presence (POP) then you’re kinda buggered anyway. The cost for laying a 2 Mbit leased line from a very close POP is currently around £6K and a 10 Mbit line can be had for around £8.5K. The further you are away from a POP, the higher the cost.

The problem that Kelvin isn’t resolving is the Last Mile.

This refers to the fact that you can drag a high speed cable three thousand miles across the Atlantic ocean but when it gets here, you’re stuck on a slow upload link. But, I hear you protest, we have 50 Mbit internet links in Belfast? Download yes – which is fine if you want to have a nation of consumers but rubbish if, for example, you want to upload digital content (home-grown movies for example) to content delivery servers in the USA. In essence, if Kelvin doesn’t usher in a new heap of wireless connectivity, it’s not actually as much use. Unless, of course, you own one of the POPs and have a heap of office space to rent out.

So, what’s the solution for getting the data out there?

A few years ago, a group of cheeky folk mobbed around Belfast with iBooks and Windows CE handheld and large Omni and Backfire antennae and played with the idea of setting up an intra-Belfast wireless network. that group folded – people went off and did their own thing – but the concept itself is still valuable. Why don’t we have a wireless delivery system for bandwidth from a local POP? How much does it really cost to buy an access port on the POP and then feed that out to folk who need it?

I guess this is another vote for “who is looking after the little guy?”

I’m so full of interesting information, I feel like the latest edition of something or other.

It’s been a while since I blogged and it’s entirely because of keeping confidences. Last week was the culmination of a lot of planning, a lot of thinking. Some of it started the previous week, when John Hartnett of the Irish Technology Leadership Group (ITLG) had a meeting with InvestNI, QUB, the University of Ulster … Continue reading “I’m so full of interesting information, I feel like the latest edition of something or other.”

It’s been a while since I blogged and it’s entirely because of keeping confidences.

Last week was the culmination of a lot of planning, a lot of thinking. Some of it started the previous week, when John Hartnett of the Irish Technology Leadership Group (ITLG) had a meeting with InvestNI, QUB, the University of Ulster and, at my insistence, Momentum and Digital Circle. But part of it started 90 days previous, when David Kirk asked me to participate in putting together a document which would form the framework of what we thought needed to happen in Northern Ireland’s technology landscape. Even more relevantly, it started back in February this year when we had the audacity to travel to Cupertino and make a pitch to Apple Inc about the talent and innovation available in Northern Ireland. All of this, from pitch to pitch, has made great dividends for Northern Ireland.

Fail Fast, Fail Often
For my part, at a meeting last Thursday with John Hartnett and John Gilmore, both of the ITLG, I pitched for Digital Circle and my pitch was simple. I want an onion skin approach to involvement with our cousins in the ITLG. I want to start by getting them to take notice of the companies in the digital content and software sector. I want to ask their help in identifying real world opportunities and, in many cases, we want them to help us to fail fast and fail often. This will be the first groundswell of culture change in Northern Ireland which regards failures as something to be despised (and only marginally less palatable than successes).

Get Involved
I also want them to use their experience and presence to advise those ideas which survive the fail test and nurture them. This can be as shallow or as deep as required. In truth, I would hope this would range from a couple of hours a month spent on Skype giving out advice to face-to-face visits in order to secure a small amount of equity. And if things worked out and the people involved liked each other, the individuals would have opportunity to become intimately involved with the company, joining the board, investing, becoming a de-facto salesman for the company as they move in their circles.

This isn’t going to happen overnight, but it ties well into some of the things we came up with in the document I contributed to which has become known as “NISW”. I’m putting a lot of effort into this, even outside of the day job, because it’s the way forward for the sector and, to be honest, in 18 months I’ll be looking for a job and I’ll want a process like this in place already for whatever I do next.

As for the confidences – I’m yet to see an announcement so I can’t say anything at all about them. But what I can say is that I am looking to meet up with the smartest folk in the province, with the best ideas and the biggest vision. And I’ll put them in touch with the first layer of the onion and we’ll see if we can create something amazing?

Paul Graham at TechCrunch50

Paul Graham at TechCrunch50: “How does it all work, what’s the insides like. And so you have to ask a lot of questions. People never seem to answer all the questions pre-emptivey in the presentation so you gotta ask a lot of questions.” TC50 and Paul Graham from sarah lacy on Vimeo. I’ve been following … Continue reading “Paul Graham at TechCrunch50”

Paul Graham at TechCrunch50:

“How does it all work, what’s the insides like. And so you have to ask a lot of questions.

People never seem to answer all the questions pre-emptivey in the presentation so you gotta ask a lot of questions.”

TC50 and Paul Graham from sarah lacy on Vimeo.

I’ve been following Paul and Y-Combinator for a while. There’s parts of their business model that I really admire – something I’d like to steal for businesses in Northern Ireland.

One of the things I admire about Y-Combinator is that they haven’t had any major successes but they still plug on. Paul reckons justin.tv or Loopt might have that global potential but the point is, they’re willing to take a chance even on projects which might not immediately have world-conquering potential. That said – a heap of their companies have been heavily funded or acquired which, by any stretch of the imagination would be a success for indigenous companies. Companies like reddit, Scribd, Dropbox, Posterous or others from their portfolio show they’re simply willing to give startups a chance.

Kirkisms: Funding by Numbers part 2

Definition of insanity, doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting different results. – @dhkirk A few days ago, David wrote an essay which was called Funding By Numbers (Part 1 of 2) which I posted in it’s entirety here on my blog. Tonight, David sent me Part 2 – talking about markets, products and teams. … Continue reading “Kirkisms: Funding by Numbers part 2”

Definition of insanity,
doing the same thing repeatedly
and expecting different results.
– @dhkirk

A few days ago, David wrote an essay which was called Funding By Numbers (Part 1 of 2) which I posted in it’s entirety here on my blog. Tonight, David sent me Part 2 – talking about markets, products and teams. It’s an interesting insight for those of us who have a company idea – I have lots of ideas but only one that I’m planning to do anything with RealSoonNow® so this has come at an opportune moment.

David begins:
Knowing VC arithmetic and fund metrics is only half of the equation. The numbers in your business plan’s financial forecasts need to positively answer the question “Can I make money with this deal?”

I have three questions, which help me answer that.

“Is this a big market?”

“Is this a hot product?”

“Is this the team that can deliver?”

But what is a “big” market and a “hot” product? It used to be we looked for a $100M of revenue in year-5 in a $1B market. Interesting how that $100M looks strangely similar to the year-5 revenue for exit valuation? It all comes down to “returns”.

Remember to scale down according to your investment needs and the returns needed by the VC. But even if you scale down, the ratio here is interesting. Basically it projects a 10% market share of the available market [I’ll return to available market later.] That’s a good market share target. Greater than 20% market share and you’ll see eyebrows raised and eyes rolling back. Less that 5% and you don’t have the ambition to get a “yes” to question three above.

OK. Available market. This is important, but skip this section of you already understand this.

There are three elements of market size; total market (TM), total available market (TAM) and total serviceable market (TSM). For starters and simplicity I’m going to ignore Total market – I can almost hear that sharp intakes of breath by countless business school professors! The other two are meaningful:

Total Available Market = size of the market that would buy your product
Total Serviceable Market = size of market that you will be selling to.

By way of example, lets say you have a product that disables a laptop if it is stolen.

The Total Market (which is meaningless) is the total number of PC’s in the world.

But this product only runs of Win XP, so the Total Addressable Market is the total number of PC’s, worldwide, running WinXP. This is the count of your potential pipeline of customers. The target customer. Note, you may also segment this further by identifying further target customer attributes, e.g. English speaking.

And, if you only ever plan to sell in Europe, then your Total Serviceable Marketable is the total number of PC’s, in Europe, running WinXP. Now you have a basis for projecting market share and strategic growth.

Without expanding your territory or adding additional OS support to your product, your market share is projected sales/Total Serviceable Market. You can increase your market, both available and serviceable, by expanding your product and your territories. That’s your business decision. As a potential investor, I just want to know I can make money whichever.

Welcome back to those you knew all that.

Now for your financial projections. The old rule of “no hockey sticks” is still relevant. And year-over-year growth is follows the laws of operational physics. I’ve never seen a $10B company double [outside of acquisition], but I have seen a company quintuple its revenues in the early years. Whilst there is no pro forma for revenue growth, I like to apply an operational realistic growth curve to the first five years of financial projections.

If year-1 is N, then
Year-2 over Year-1 can be 500%, giving a projection of 5N
Year-3 over Year-2 can be 300%, giving a projection of 15N
Year-4 over Year-3 can be 200%, giving a projection of 30N
Year-5 over Year-4 can be 180%, giving a projection of 54N

Year-1 MUST be a bottoms up calculation, showing that you know the operational reality of the sales channel for your product, and the channel MUST be scalable. Then just make sure that 54N is between 5% and 15% of your addressable/serviceable market!

Just a truism on business plan financial projections.

Revenue NEVER comes as fast as you think.

Cost are ALWAYS greater than you planned.

I expect that, its not a negative the first time, possibly even the second time … stuff happens, but lets hope the error is on the side of planning, verses execution.

And that brings me back to the final question … “Is this the team that can deliver”. At the end of the day, we invest in PEOPLE. There are LOTS of great ideas, big markets and hot products, but the road to financial nirvana is paved with teams of people that just couldn’t deliver.

I rate the management team as:

A … past champions (serial entrepreneurs), they’ve been up the hill before and just need a sounding board

C … first time in the game, need adult supervision
 think Bosack & Lerner and Morgridge [Cisco]
Case and Kimsey [AOL]
Andreessen and Clark [Netscape]
Page & Brin and Schmidt [Google]

B… played in a few games, but never scored

In all cases, with the right VC, you get the operational experience you need.

And that is the first 1% of what it takes to get a company funded and make a bucket load of money.

Ideas are cheap. Enthusiasm is priceless

Back in 2008, Y-Combinator threw out a list of startup ideas they thought would be interesting to see and followed up with a more formal request for startups in a few key areas. A few days ago I recounted a list from May 2009 where a VC listed areas he could see room for innovation. … Continue reading “Ideas are cheap. Enthusiasm is priceless”

Back in 2008, Y-Combinator threw out a list of startup ideas they thought would be interesting to see and followed up with a more formal request for startups in a few key areas. A few days ago I recounted a list from May 2009 where a VC listed areas he could see room for innovation. Earlier this year, not long after we got back from WWDC, I posted a forum called Ideas Café to a group of friends who were on the WWDC trip and populated it with a few ideas that I’d come up with, simply in order to see what could come out of it. I’m not a developer (and likely will never be) but I have plenty of ideas.

Earlier today ReadWriteWeb came up with 6 Awesome Apps Begging to Be Developed.

I know there are developers out there in my community who have said to me, “Yeah, I can write code, but I don’t have an ideas on what to write.” or something similar. There’s a gazillion ideas out there – if you’re not sure about something, ask.

Back in the nineties when I was writing my books, I remember having to sit and pitch the story to a friend of mine who, at hearing the tagline, wasn’t interested. For two minutes I explained the premise and at the end created a fan who not only promoted the book at every turn but wrote an incredible amount of supporting material.

There will be ideas like that out there. Concepts that when you first read them they’ll be kinda wooly. So talk to people about them. Talk to me. Turn up at one of the many OpenCoffeeClub meetings in your region (we have around 6 different OCC geographies in Northern Ireland alone). Maybe someone can give you that two minute pitch to make you insanely enthusiastic?

Kirkisms: Funding by Numbers part 1

“US VC’s will give you a “no” in 20 mins, NI VC’s will give you a perpetual “come back when … “ I feel very privileged to say David Kirk is my friend. We’ve shared laughs and commiserations, broken bread at the two best Italian restaurants I have ever eaten in and talked family almost … Continue reading “Kirkisms: Funding by Numbers part 1”

“US VC’s will give you a “no” in 20 mins, NI VC’s will give you a perpetual “come back when … “

I feel very privileged to say David Kirk is my friend. We’ve shared laughs and commiserations, broken bread at the two best Italian restaurants I have ever eaten in and talked family almost as much as finance. He’s encouraged me in my latest inane scheme of owning a boat (by showing my pictures of his yacht) and tempted me with boozy cocktails in arid climates.

In this case, I’m giving him kudos not only because of his history of being a senior executive in companies like AOL and Cisco but because he’s also now a seasoned business advisor and serial investor. David sent me this, a part one of two, which attempts to explain how the Venture Capital system is meant to work from his point of view.

David begins:
Whether you are an entrepreneur or a VC – I like to think I have a foot in each camp – we live in interesting times. Barely a month goes by without a new report showing some “interesting” aspect of investment in 2008/2009, whether it be valuation multiples, return multiples, shift in investment stage focus or just the consolidation of funds out there.

While there is, and always will be, market specific conditions that free or freeze funds, the basics of investing in technology companies, remains somewhat constant, and should always be considered as the backdrop to any specific funding strategy.

When a company seeks funding, they are selling themselves and the investment opportunity that their business represents to the investor. I’m of the opinion that selling, whether it be ice cream or cars, is always much more effective when you really know your potential “customer” – their needs, their wants, what they look for, hot buttons, turn offs. Its no different with VC’s. It’s a business. We need to make money, just like you.

So how does it work?

The returns on any investment is governed by its risk. The riskier the investment, the higher the returns expected. Investing in technology startup companies is very risky. Failure rates of up to 90% are quoted. VC’s expect and plan for 60-70% of their portfolio companies to fail or limp along. Similarly, investors in venture funds – the Limited Partners – expect a corresponding higher return than safer investments. The US ten-year average returns (IRR) on all venture funds in ~17%.

At this point, the discerning reader has all the information needed to determine every ratio and “rule-of-thumb” that will follow. But there is need for a great big caveat. Presented here will be pro-forma numbers. I have never seen, nor heard of any business, investment opportunity or fund that mirrors exactly what is given here. The exactly numbers and ratios are somewhat interesting, more – much more – importantly are the ideas behind the numbers. Grasp these, and you’ll be able to apply the principles to any, real-world situation.

Right. Now that’s out of the way, back to arithmetic.

I’m a fund manager. I have ten portfolio companies. Being smart (i.e. I’ve lost money in the past) I’m planning for three of those companies to fail without returning anything, and three or four to “go nowhere” returning, perhaps, the money that was invested. That leaves three “winners” in the portfolio to generate all the returns for the limited partners, the “carry” for the General Partners, and to cover the management fees. That means that each of these “winners” has to return x10 – x15 the investment, to cover the “losers” and the “going nowhere”.

My personal rule of thumb is that an investment needs to return x7 – x10 my investment in 3-5 years.

OK. Next we need some discussion on how to calculate “return”. On one hand its very easy to calculate, but the simplicity in calculation, belies an ocean of “art” and “judgment” surrounding it. If my investment in a company buys me x% of equity, then my return is x% of the exit valuation $y. At this point, given two variables, it could almost appear that we can plug in whatever values for x and y we like, to come up with our investment multiple. Not quite. I look for 20%-25% equity in a company (but, full disclosure here, every investor and VC has their own perspective on this). Less and you lose “influence”, more and you risk demotivating the founders. But be very careful here, you’ll hear many times the argument, “would you like 80% of $1M business or 20% of a $100M business.”

Equity understood. Check!

What about valuation. This is where you will need to do your own analysis, based on industry, business model, geography, etc. In general, the exit valuate is based on a multiple of either revenue or profit. As an interesting sidebar, in the absence of both – as we experienced in 1999 – valuation of those dotcom darlings was $1M per developer. Science? Nay, magic eight ball. Over the past 15 years, predominantly in software, I’ve used smaller and smaller multiples. In the mid-90’s, x5 revenue seemed to fly with trade sales. Today I use x2, and even that is appearing to be generous. Exit or investment valuation is 90% art, 10% science and 100% negotiation. You need to understand this.

OK. At this point you should be able to answer the last question a VC asks “is this a good deal for me?” But there is one big variable that will depend upon whether you are looking for investment from a $1B fund or a $10M fund. That is scale and bandwidth. An individual VC can only adequately manage a handful (or two) of portfolio companies. If there are n VC’s in a $1B fund, then the average deal size is likely ($1B/10n)*.60 (where 60% is ration of funds invested initially). Calculate that out. Perhaps their sweet spot is $5M – and likely you can find this on the home page of their website. So now you have a very simple litmus test.

With a $5M investment (ignoring follow-on money), a 25% equity position, and an exit value of x2 revenue – the revenue in year 5 should be at least $100M.

Big gulp!!!

Part 2 will go into the first three things a VC looks for in an investment opportunity; a big market, a hot product, and a team that can deliver.